Alibaba Long & Updates
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Welcome to October and the final quarter of the year. This is a data filled week so we’re going to go over some key data points this week as well as dive into Carvana and Alibaba.
I have a long standing history with Carvana.
It began back in 2022 as I was tracking it for a short for a few years and finally got my shot. I’m back at it as of Q4 so I am going to get into that.
Alibaba was a long that caught my attention (no position yet) but we’re going to cover that today as I am tracking it for the new AST Alerts for The LongVol Membership.
We’re going to start this week with:
- JOLTS Jobs Data
- TLT/20 Year
- Energy Pullback
- Alibaba
JOLTS DATA
JOLTS data came out today and dropped the Nasdaq and S&P – labor market is still tight which is not what the Fed wants to see. We need “bad news is good news” for all of us but we probably have bigger issues.
The S&P sell-off on this news was expected now we just need to see if we can flush out more liquidity this week.
TLT/20 Year Notes
The laziest long of the year my advisors is here – it’s called TLT long, no brain cells required.
Energy Pullabck
We finally got a technical pullback in energy this week which was ideal given the run from August into end of September.
That theme has been great all summer for equity longs and you have fundamental tailwinds in poor energy policy pushing prices higher.
Positives here:
- Some energy dividend names I’ve been watching are coming in off the highs, they still need more but that’s a start.
- Great shorting this week on WTI Crude Futures
Alibaba Long
Alibaba has been on the radar for a while but this stock has some tendencies about it that make it tough to actual place a position on.
I was long this name through the IPO back in 2014 when I was a PM and – I also owned it through Yahoo in 2012 as they owned a big share of it on their balance sheet.
- Alibaba Spin-offs clear up the balance sheet
- Global markets are not in great shape so that puts pressure on this as well
- The trade structure matters – this will be something that will go into the AST TLV Alert soon.
Final Word
So far we have our Red October like I talked about two articles ago. The markets are risk-off right now and that continues.
As always, this is a game of patience and being able to take a long/short approach is key. It also helps to be able to know how to structure a portfolio so that you are not over weighted in one ideas.
Next Lesson
Final Quarter of 2024 Stock Market
Stock Market Stimulus
The Main Event is Here
About the Author
Daniel Bustamante is the founder, managing partner, and CIO of Bustamante Capital L.L.C., a multi-strategy hedge fund management firm based in San Juan, Puerto Rico. He has over 10 years of experience in the financial industry, specializing in equities, futures, and event-driven trading strategies.
He is also the founder of TheLongVol.com, a blog and newsletter that shares his insights on his investing process, travel, and other private investments. He has been featured in Bloomberg, Arizona Business Journal, Business Insider, Yahoo! Finance, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, and other publications over his career on Wall Street.
