Final Quarter of 2024
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This is the weekly article and Pod/Video Show 38 – Final Quarter of Stock Market 2024
This is the final quarter of the 2024 stock market and we’re headed into the election months with a port closing, escalation heating up in the Middle East and a hurricane on the East Coast
- 3 weeks until Money Show Orlando
- New changes to The LongVol Report are here: readers are sending feedback and we’re trying to dial it in so that its better
- For those that have followed for years who are active trading/not managing portfolios we have a new sub-site coming for you all here next week – this will give those of you that are new/active trading a place to go and use my old frameworks that I built back in 2015 and it’s led by a close friend and original student from 2017 so this is great news!
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We publish the article of the week every Friday here on TheLongVol.com and then the podcast/videocast is on Spotify and YouTube.
Three main topics for today’s show – as always, a life update then:
- Articles of Interest from This Week
- Fourth Quarter Stock Market
- Broad Market Views
- Oil Manipulation
- Checking in On China
- Q&A for The Week
Quote of The Week
Favorite Articles This Week
Q4 Thought Process/Ideas
We’ve got a few tailwinds right now given the end of the cycle so let’s keep it simple with what we know to kick this off.
- Fed rate cut is done (likely a few more)
- China launched massive stimulus
- Japan decided not to hike (which was not expected- im interested!)
- Inflation continues to take off – monitoring that closely
- Many turn around names might be able to come to life so on the hunt for names that are struggling the last year or so
Tom Lee from Fundstrat $6,000 year end target with plenty of tailwinds
Concluding:
- As long as the Governments keep spending the more problems we see with inflation and I don’t think either candidate intends to spend less and the more they spend the more inflation we get
- My concern is a Kamala Presidency for a few reasons but the main one is the floated idea of taxes on Capital gains – now the first order thinker argument is always “how does that affect you?” – this affects all of us and the fact that there are people around her even floating it is as concerning as it gets – that’s something to really pay attention too for me
- I probably venture more into Japan equities (already started a bit last quarter) the next few quarters – but more research needed.
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Broad Market Analysis
A relatively stable week in the broad-market. We had end of Q3 window dressing followed but the standard risk-off event Tuesday then sideways action on a dull market. Likely driven to some underlying options items going on and headline risk from the Middle East as well as concerns from the port closures.
We changed the report last week to make it easier to navigate – here were this weeks market notes. I’ve been pairing the report with some quick note updates on the Substack/LongVolReport.com
Here are some notes from the report this week.
That changed a bit after the BOJ statement early Wednesday morning with Dovish statements and I think, in part, had that not happened we’d had been a little more risk off than we saw.
As of Thursday – we’re effectively at the same spot we were to start the week with NFP ahead and the weekend with Middle East tensions we’ll see where we go but I am still lightly risk off views here – more in the report on Sunday.
Swing Monitor
Oil/Commodities
Checking back In on EOG
This made it into the report last year as we began to trade into energy names and this one became one of the leaders for a few reasons. Those reasons still apply today and we’re close to a new all-time high so a quick review:
- First 6 months of 2024 spent $1.5 Billion on buybacks
- Spent another $1 Billion on dividends
- Free cash flow expected to increase +10% in 2025
- Finally a strong week so far – we’ll see if technicals can take over
China Check in
- Inflows are now pouring in this week as the lazy advisors and Main Street financial news talks it up – being ahead of the curve is key
- We think we get a pullback short-term
- This was a 2025/2026 LEAPS trade that we had on
- I may short some of this stuff as a tactical trade in coming weeks (not advice)
Final Word.
- Report out this weekend Issue 40
- Open Q&A for the Show this week
- NFP Tomorrow
Thanks for reading/watching/listening this week! See you Sunday for the report!
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About the Author
Daniel Bustamante is the founder, managing partner, and CIO of Bustamante Capital Management L.L.C., a multi-strategy investment management fir. He has over 15 years of experience in the financial industry, specializing in equities, futures, and event-driven trading strategies.
He is also the founder of TheLongVol.com, a blog and newsletter that shares his insights on his investing process, travel, and other private investments. He has been featured in Bloomberg, Arizona Business Journal, Business Insider, Yahoo! Finance, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, and other publications over his career on Wall Street.
