Patience Pays and Stock Market Sentiment

Episode 56 - Patience Pays

This is episode 56 of The LongVol Report Podcast – welcome back and for the new listeners, welcome. Make sure to subscribe to the Spotify/YouTube – we put this out each Thursday with the Pod/video out on Fridays, you can ask questions each week here and I’ll do my best to answer.

I am back in San Juan after a few weeks in the Middle East meeting with potential clients for my asset management firm, Bustamante & Co, as well as attending the AIMA conference.

There have been a few names we’ve talked about on this show that have absolutely rocketed higher to start this year and some others that are JUST getting going to start.

$HIMS – a triple
$BABA – a double
$VFC – a double
$BA – just getting started
$AAP – first inning
$GXO – just getting started
$INTC – on a tear and just getting started

As a money manager I try to tell my clients that this is a game of a few key things: compounding, patience and picking good companies. There are period were there are a lull because we’re between earnings reports and/or major catalysts so price is stagnant but the important thing to remember is price is what you pay and value is what you get. We buy value and it’s a story that is as old as time and people sleep on them until they’re popular then everyone wants in.

Since I was unable to do the last few weeks of the podcast I am going to combine the last two articles of the week and then do some updates this week to some of the names on this show.

Show/Podcast Updates:

Starting next week I am going to be writing this on the Substack (LongVolReport.com) and making the core part of the show for members only.

We’ll still cover the Broad Market outlook and key articles from the market each week for free but the rest of the ideas, stock analysis, Q&A session and other items will be behind a paywall.

This will make the free show/article about 20-30 minutes each week
The remainder 30-60 minutes and article will be behind the paywall for members
This should encourage more of you to ask questions for trade setups and stocks in the report and I can cover them freely

You can subscribe here or if you’re already a reader of The LongVol Report you’ll have access. If you are a member make sure you have access to read the posts there (you should since we send out the Sunday market video).

This week we’ll talk about:

Broad Market Update
Rivian Earnings Review
Alibaba & China Tech Recap
$HIMS on Fire
Gold Futures? Overbought?
Review Prior Articles (55 & 54) – $GXO/$INTC/$AAP Updates

Now on Spotify

The Broad Market: Stock Market Sentiment

Weak flow on these highs for February but we’re also not getting a catalyst to sell which makes it interesting to sit and watch as the day traders go after this. For new readers here predicting the SP500 or broad market is now what I do, we pick good companies and try to put on quality tactical trades in the meantime.

Still think we are in the later innings of this rally and that we need to be cautious as we head into March
$6200-$6220 area is a spot on SP500 futures to watch for a target
$6050 remains a key high time frame support
Let’s look at some charts: $SPX/$Nasdaq/$Russell 2000 and Sector ETFs

Rivian finally has a gross profit but guidance is week, the stock is unchanged post earnings.

Who remembers this? We talked about $BABA and other names in China on this show back in October and China tech is all that anyone wants the last few weeks.

Stock Market Stimulus. – the show/article last Summer we talked about $BABA and other names.

Alibaba is on an absolute tear as of recent and Tepper nailed this idea.

$HIMS is a rocket ship! We talked about this name the last two years and this finally did what it was supposed to do – for many of you who were patient enough you’re smiling from ear to ear!

Rally Caps On – Article where (one of many) where we talked about $HIMS indexation and other notes.

Gold Surges – Overbought?

Gold futures have been on a tear to start the year and that goes the same for some miners we’ve covered on this show. I missed this theme, rather, miscalculated the extend of where I thought it could go, however, short-term we may get a healthy pullback.

Tactical trades (long/short) are part of what I try to do for client portfolios and in situations like this where we are heavily extended on the higher time frames it gains my attention.

$2700-$2750 is a short-term target for me on the tactical short
RSI reading on the monthly time frames are at extremes (more important when you see this on the higher time frames)
When this sells off it will move $100-$200 handles in just a few days
Barrons Article: How high can gold futures go?

Final Word.

Issue 8 is out Monday
Next Weeks Podcast/Article Will be Posted on LongVolReport.com (you can still watch free on YouTube/Spotify)
For members this is a chance to ask questions on charts/trades/ideas from the Report and a better use of my time and yours
March Intraday Playbook Class is Up
Congrats to $BABA and $HIMS longs!

This is opinion, not advice.