The LongVol Show - Ep 22: Q2 Recap & Q3 Outlook/Notes
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This is the weekly article and Pod/Video Show 22. If you’re new here welcome, make sure to subscribe on YouTube and/or Spotify – you can get free daily market updates on LongVolReport.com.
Three main topics for today’s show – as always, a life update then:
- Articles of Interest from This Week
- Broad Market Overview
- Winners & Losers from Q2
- Q3 Outlook
- Weekly Q&A
If you’re new – this is not investment advice, I only manage money for accredited investors and qualified institutions – if that’s not you, then you can access the AST Alerts Free for 21 Days.
Quote of The Week
Favorite Articles This Week
Now on Spotify
The Market at Large
I laid out the case for the market last week here. Not much has changed since then so let’s just review that a bit, talk about end of quarter and some expectations to start Q3.
Review Issue 26 of TLV
I prefer to trade these names – if you want coverage on them use the LongVol Digital Membership. It’s 50% off for new members through the end of Summer.
Q2 Winners & Losers
Q2 was really the quarter for tech and mag-7 names. There were a few outperformers we had in the report but most of the quarter was quieter.
- Ok to track names until material changes come in (patience pays).
- I prefer to defer to event-driven trading and/or short-term dislocations to drive P&L in the meantime and that was most of Q2.
- Don’t mind sitting on cash as things shakeout; patience is the key in successful investing.
- Rivian is a great example of an asymmetric portfolio position that took about five months…. again patience wins.
- Taiwain Semiconductor was a 30% win – I expect more out of that soon but profits were booked.
- Short-term trading was profitable: $SMCI especially in Q2 was a quality name to trade back and forth.
- The end of June trade that I discussed “Painting The Tape” with $AMZN and other names was really the “layup”
Q3 - Some Expectations
- Likelihood that Fed cuts (they need to catch this right) in September.
- Normalization of tech names (NVDA/GOOGL/AMZN etc)
- Russell 2000 might finally get going and something to watch.
- Select REITS and other housing/RE names in play into Fall.
- Oil/Gas names back in play (at least for me and clients) – we were out of them in Q2.
- Tracking some consumer cyclical names (RACE/RH)
Valero Q1/Thoughts
- Really slowed down in Q2 but expect energy and related names to pick back up
- RH recent earning miss and FCF dropping
- Technically RACE has me concerned so tracking some of these
Final Word.
- Q&A From Readers
- Don’t Forget – LongVol Digital is 50% for The Summer for 12 Months
- Issue 27 of TLV out Sunday
Next Lesson
Final Quarter of 2024 Stock Market
Stock Market Stimulus
The Main Event is Here
About the Author
Daniel Bustamante is the founder, managing partner, and CIO of Bustamante Capital Management L.L.C., a multi-strategy investment management firm based in San Juan, Puerto Rico. He has over 10 years of experience in the financial industry, specializing in equities, futures, and event-driven trading strategies.
He is also the founder of TheLongVol.com, a blog and newsletter that shares his insights on his investing process, travel, and other private investments. He has been featured in Bloomberg, Arizona Business Journal, Business Insider, Yahoo! Finance, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, and other publications over his career on Wall Street.
