Trump Tariffs & Stock Market Sentiment

Episode 52 - Trump Tariffs & Stock Market Sentiment

This is episode 52 of The LongVol Report Podcast – welcome back and for the new listeners, welcome. Make sure to subscribe to the Spotify/YouTube – we put this out each Thursday with the Pod/video out on Fridays, you can ask questions each week here and I’ll do my best to answer.

This week is the first week back with Trump in office and the headlines area already moving as are the tariff threats and other policy changes. I see all of this as a positive if you know what to do with it, for consumers, that may be another issue but we’ll stick to how to make money from the markets using what is thrown at us, tariffs included.

This week we had generally tame economic data but it’s been a lot to keep up with policy changes and potential changes. Apple was one of those broad market names this week that has just been taken to the woodshed and we discussed that in Issue 3 as well as LongVol (nice).

YTD the stock is down -12% and with growth slowing it makes sense – I think we’ll see more of this here soon in Q1 with many of the Fang names.

This week we’ll talk about:

Broad Market Update
BOJ Meeting Still Ahead
SPX Notes & Charts Update
Schwab Earnings Update
Why Ruble Stock Caught My Attention
Trump & The Tech Bros
VF Corp Update
Trump Tariffs – Two Ways to Trade Them
Q&A

Now on Spotify

The Broad Market: Stock Market Sentiment

The markets were green across the deck this week with Trump back in office and while Apple and Tesla lagged the rest of the Momo names did what they normally do. At the time of this article we’re still waiting on the BOJ rate hike which was price in at 90% coming into he meeting by traders.

SPX500 notes from The Report Sunday and then some charts like we do each week here on the show….

$6,050 was the key and we broke that with ease this week

Schwab Earnings Notes: had another great earnings report and this despite the doom-and-gloomers on X who like to sound smart discussing Tier one capital blah blah….while spreading fear. These clowns did it in 2023 and they did it again and we’ve been bullish this name? Why – we paid attention to what they said on the earnings report! Yes, you can actually learn about a company by listening to the earnings report and reading it!

This trade is 3 days old – don’t put it on. It was sent to Swing Trade Alert members.

We talked about it in this podcast here too.

Rumble Stock: We added this to the report last Sunday and I have to say this is out of the norm for what we do. They’re negative EBITDA and just not the financials you want to see but there are some reasons to discuss.

They could start to trend in the right direction with earnings
The platform and users are growing
Debt is Low
$77B Investment from Tether

Ideas like this are speculative for me – I try not to act like a r3tard and put a lot of capital in the deal. A small amount with LEAPs and or the shares and the goal is to just leave it alone for 2/3/4 quarters to see what comes of it.

I am NOT buying the chart, the Ikocmochu cloud or 200SMA, I am buying the idea that they get to positive earnings, that user base grows and that they continue to bring on larger streamers who were kicked off YouTube and/or leave YouTube.

This could be a Company that goes 2X/3X etc. or it could just tank 40% but that’s the risk I am willing to take to get the potential upside.

Trump and The Tech Bros: Stargate sounds like a weird sci-fi flick and most of this is filled with grifters. I don’t think it means much but it was good for a rally in some of the high-beta names which are getting extremely overbought.

VF Corp Update: We’re making new 52 week highs after some fresh guidance from some of the investment banks as a week out from earnings on this name.

The added a new President at Eddie Bauer
Earnings next week

Trump Tariffs - How to Play Them

The tariffs are coming one way or another but for most that word is a buzz-word, attention-grabbing piece. Very few dig into it, how to profit from it or what it actually means… and that’s most investors in any idea.

Instead of talking about it from some esoteric macro-perspective that only confuses people let’s talk about some tradable themes/stocks that can catch some tailwinds from the imposed tariffs.

Potash Stocks – the majority of Potash comes from Canada
Select energy stocks

Plenty of names there to look at. Mosaic and others are already well up off the lows as of late…..some financials are better than others in this space, however.

Conclusion: don’t focus on the headline, figure our what sectors are affected then figure out what companies will benefit or not benefit. That alone is idea generation or you can just subscribe to The LongVol Report and piggy-back off of our work.

Final Word.

Issue 4 Is Out Sunday
We Have a Swing Trading Webinar Next Saturday – Register here
I will be in Dubai & Abu Dhabi in February for Meetings, If Anyone Wants to Meet Up Let Me Know
BOJ Meeting Still Important for The Markets

This is opinion, not advice. Please read the terms and disclosures.